THE SIGNAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY: INDICATORS APPROACH

ანოტაცია

In the paper, the signal system of Ukraine’s economy external sustainability is considered. For this purpose it is pre- sented the Ukraine’s economy external sustainability indicators system that consists of 40 indicators that are divided into five groups: macroeconomic indicators; indicators, characterizing the current account position; indicators, characterizing the capital account position; debt indicators and indicators,characterizing the influence of the external sector.

Based on the signal approach, the threshold percentiles, the probabilities of instability occurrence due to external disturbances and the noise-signal ratio for each indicator of external sustainability for the Ukrainian economy are calcu- lated. 

The results of the noise-signal ratio calculations showed that their values for 21 indicators are quite high but less than one. Based on analysis of indicators’ signals, there is a clear tendency  of  more  accurate  identification  of  the  volatility since 2008. 

For the overwhelming majority of indicators the proba- bilities of an unstable situation arising due to the signal from the indicator are high and exceed 50%. The probability of an unstable situation occurring without indicators’ signals for   all external sustainability indicators except one also exceeds 50%. In addition to it for each of the five groups of indicators and the indicators’ system in a whole the average probabilities of unstable situation occurrence is calculated under the condition of a signal from indicators and without it.