MONITORING OF KEY INDICATORS OF THE STATE DEBT OF UKRAINE: MODERN TRENDS

Abstract

  The  article  contains  a  theoretical  generalization   of  the essence  and necessity  of state  borrowing,  monitoring  of indi- cators of state and state-guaranteed  debt in the conditions  of government aspirations and actions in the field of ensuring the sustainability of public finances in Ukraine. The main task of the authors is to monitor the indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in the context of the need to ensure the sustainability of pub- lic finances of Ukraine. State debt in Ukraine remains a significant factor of macro-financial  risk. An important measure to prevent the threat of uncontrolled growth of public debt is to strengthen financial control and the implementation of continuous monitor- ing of its main indicators. The cost of public borrowing and the assessment of the effectiveness of their use as a factor in ensuring the sustainable development of the economy is a constant source of discussion between officials, public organizations,  and repre- sentatives of scientific analysis centers.
  The article  uses  the generally  accepted  methodology  for calculating the main indicators characterizing the state’s debt policy. The method of expert assessments analyzes the condition of the state debt and prospects of its servicing in Ukraine. Statis- tical and analytical methods have been used for the processing of statistical data on the study of the dynamics of indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in Ukraine. The sources of infor- mation were the materials of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine, as well as the Budget Code of Ukraine, laws and regulations of Ukraine relating to the budget sphere, scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. This study aims to address the issues of analyzing and evaluating pub- lic debt indicators in the context of improving debt management. The authors propose to use 10 indicators to monitor the state of public debt and make managerial decisions in public finance.
  The empirical experience of developed EU countries confirms the feasibility of using the key benchmark of state debt to GDP of 60% in government debt management. At the same time, the max- imum level of public debt for emerging markets is proposed in the range of 40-60%. These ideas were embodied in the position of the medium-term state debt management strategy for 2018–2020 years, where the planned gradual reduction of public debt to GDP is 60% as of 2018, up to 52.2% in 2019 and up to 49% in 2020 .
  Consequently,  it is important  to monitor compliance  with the established  expected values during the budget periods de- fined by the strategic plans for monitoring and justifying the ac- tually obtained indicators. In this context, the actual indicator of Ukraine’s debt in 2018 was 68%, which indicates a deviation from the planned indicator, which was due to the presence of internal and external factors which were not taken into account when this indicator was planning and which need to be further studied. So, the quality of debt planning needs further improvement. In addi- tion, the group of indicators of debt security should include the indicator of external government debt - short-term external debt as a percentage of reserves (threshold value - 100%), from 2014 this indicator is constantly exceeded.
  The dynamics of changes in the state debt and state-guar- anteed debt to the main macroeconomic  indicators and budget parameters,  weaknesses  of the government  debt strategy,  the prospects of the debt policy in Ukraine are determined